Analysts at the National Bank of Australia say they forecast Australian growth in the second quarter and forecast 1.6% growth this year.
They say: "Unemployment is expected to rise by 5.5% and employment growth to slow following growth. The reason for this slowing growth could first be attributed to weakness in the household sector with very low consumer growth, which is that low wage growth can be one of the reasons, and the second is the continued downturn in housing investment. Of course, the public sector and net exports are probably showing their strength and offsetting some of these weaknesses. "
“We also anticipate a solid performance from the business sector, with private investment likely to rise in aggregate on the back of growth in the non-mining sector, while mining should at least stabilise. However, a weak starting point, with low inflation and sizable spare capacity in the labour market are likely to see the RBA cut the cash rate further (indeed, their own forecasts embody a further 50bps of cuts).”
“We see a November cut as probable but think there is significant risk of further cuts, and would not rule out unconventional policy should the economy not receive substantial support from other policy arms or global headwinds worsen.”
Source : Fxstreet