West pac analyst Matthew Hassan says Australia’s dwelling approvals fell 1.2% in June following a slight 0.3% increase in May.
"This was in line with West pac's view, but slightly below the general expectation of a 0.2% increase. Approvals fell 30% from 2018 and are still below 25.6% a year," he says. June is in line with our view A sharp reversal in permits has led Australia to a 19% decline this month, followed by an 11% increase from May and April. "
"The aggregate non res building approvals increased by 9.6% in May following a 6.8% decline in May. Despite fluctuations, licenses appear to be holding up. The detail shows recent rises have come across a range of sub-segments including education, health, retail and warehouses.”
“Overall, the June update is predictable and the housing license is still soft but what is likely to be a stable trend in the second half of 2019."
“Further weakness in new dwelling construction remains locked in for 2019 and the first half of 2020, with any stabilisation likely to be slow to play through to activity due to the long lags on high rise projects.”