Long term Dollar Analysis
Publish Date : 2019/08/09 - 07:26

Given the volatility of the dollar in the past year, many of the people have been looking to the dollar and the gold to rise this year, but due to many factors that the most important is the change in the central bank policy and overbought, made dollar to fall and there has been some sort of mid-term correction in the dollar, in fact, but the question is that whether the dollar's growth has come to an end or not?

Given the $1600 billion liquidity and the dollar's intrinsic value, it can range from $11,500 to $12,500, and is it a dollar lowest price? The answer is “yes”, fundamentally and technically. In the next 6 months, the highest price range can be estimated at 15,500 to 16,000, which can be attributed to the following factors:

  1. The liquidity in the country's banks is low and the interest rate is above 16%.
  2. The US dollar index in the Asian and Middle East currencies is increasing, it has little effect on prices.
  3. Given the relative recession and inflationary stagnation in the market, the dollar needs to rise in order to improve the market trend and this price growth should be controlled for production, otherwise it could have the consequences of further dollar growth.
  4. It has been heard by the government that they are making decisions to raise the stock market and move capital to the capital market, and if that is true, the best stock market stimulus could be a relative rise in the dollar.

Conclusion: We will have low growth in dollar price with volatility, and it will act as a double-edged blade. If dollar price growth increases production and exports to neighboring countries, people's livelihoods will improve, otherwise the condition will get worse and we will continue to have inflationary stagnation.

Comments on 4-zero removal of national currency: it has no effect on national currency value, it just makes cost and psychological struggle for future plans (the way the dollar has passed during the 40-year Revolution can be reduced to 10 by psychological debate and it will have 40-year growth over the next 10 years).

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. Navasangold, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

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